A term Gibson Biddle uses for the necessarily uncertain, best-effort prediction a product leader must make about an initiative's impact when no hard data exists yet. The name captures the honest starting point — a 'stupid' guess — with the goal of upgrading it to a 'scientific' one as data comes in. Used when Two-Question New-Initiative Filter and DHM Framework (Delight, Hard-to-Copy, Margin-Enhancing) can't be answered from existing data, and refined via Big A/B Testing as Default Validation once a test is running. Part of Biddle's Strategy → Plan → Consumer Science → Product Sense Pipeline: SWAGs are what product sense produces when strategy and consumer science haven't yet resolved a question.
Из тем: Netflix, Consumer Science, and Strategy Storytelling