A cognitive-bias model borrowed from the Dunning-Kruger confidence/competence curve, repurposed as a map of the emotional arc of a Product Model (vs. Roadmap Model) transformation over time: initial high confidence after kickoff, a slump into doubt and second-guessing as early doubters watch for proof, before real results climb back up and reestablish trust.
Apply: expect and openly normalize a mid-transformation confidence dip — call it out by name to the team and stakeholders — rather than treating it as evidence the transformation is failing or reverting to the old project model at the first sign of doubt. Pair this expectation with visible progress from Discovery Demos and the Bank of Trust to shorten the valley rather than deny it exists.
Из тем: Transformation in Practice